Modelos alternativos para explicar la evolución del gasto público español
- Articles
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Publicado: abril 1, 2019
Resumen
El artículo contrasta empíricamente diferentes modelos alternativos, con variables tanto desde el
lado de la oferta como de la demanda, para estudiar la evolución del gasto público en España en el
período 1964-2016. Se utiliza la metodología habitual de raíces unitarias y cointegración en series
temporales para contrastar los modelos, utilizando como base modelos de retardo distribuido auto-
rregresivo para el largo plazo y modelos de corrección de errores para el corto. De los tres modelos
considerados, el que mejor explica el comportamiento del sector público español es el modelo de
hacienda pública al que se le ha añadido la variable explicativa de la burocracia.
Referencias
Alcaide, Julio. (1988). El gasto público en la democracia española: los hechos. En: Papeles de Economía Española, n.o 37, p. 2-41.
Aranson, Peter y Ordeshook, Peter. (1977). Incrementalism, the fiscal illusion and the growth of government in representative democracies. Miami: University of Miami, 80 p.
Bergstrom, Theodore y Goodman, Robert. (1973). Private Demands for Public Goods. En: American Economic Review, vol. 63, n.o 3, p. 280-296.
Borcherding, Thomas; Bush, Winston y Spann, Robert. (1977). The effects on public spending of the divisibility of public outputs in consumption, bureaucratic power and the size of the tax-sharing group. En: Borcherding, Thomas. (Ed.). Budgets and Bureaucrats: The Sources
of Government Growth. Ann Arbor: Umi Research Pr, p. 211-228.
Borcherding, Thomas. (1985). The causes of government expenditure growth: A survey of the U.S. evidence. En: Journal of Public Economics, vol. 28, n.o 3, p. 359-382. Doi: doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(85)90065-9
Borcherding, Thomas y Deacon, Robert. (1972). The demand for the services of non-federal governments. En: American Economic Review, vol. 62, n.o 5, p. 891-901.
Bush, Winston y Denzau, Arthur. (1977). The voting behavior of bureaucrats and public sector growth. En Borcherding, Thomas (Ed.). Budgets and Bureaucrats: The Sources of Government Growth. Ann Arbor: Umi Research Pr, p. 90-99.
Comin, Francisco y Díaz, Daniel (2005). Sector público administrativo y estado del bienestar. En: Tufannel, Xavier y Carrearas Albert. Estadísticas Históricas de España. Fundación BBVA. Madrid, p.873974.
Courakis, Anthony; Moura-Roque, Fátima y Tridimas, George. (1993). Public expenditure growth in Greece and Portugal: Wagner´s law and beyond. En: Applied Economics, vol. 25, n.o 1, p. 125-134. Doi: 10.1080/00036849300000121
Cullis, John y Jones, Philip. (2009). Public Finance and Public Choice. Analytical Perspectives. Oxford: University Press, 560 p.
Gemmell, Norman. (1990). Wagner’s Law, Relative Prices and the Size of the Public Sector. En: Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, vol. 58, n.o 4, p. 361-377. Doi: /abs/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1990.tb00428.x
Gemmell, Norman. (Ed.). (1993). The Growth of the Public Sector: Theories and International Evidence. Aldershot: Edward Elgar Publishing, 261 p.
Gemmell, Norman; Gill, Derek y Nguyen, Loc. (2016). Explaining the Size of the State in New Zealand, 1972-2014. Wellington: Victoria University of Wellington, 36 p.
Hood, Christopher. (1991). A Public Management for All Seasons? En: Public Administration, vol. 69, p. 3-19.
Jaén-García, Manuel. (2004). Evolución contemporánea del gasto público en España. Almería: Universidad de Almería, 240 p.
Jaén-García, Manuel. (2016). Public expenditure and deficit in Spain (1958-2014). En: Semestre Económico, vol. 19, n.o 40, p. 17-52. Doi: doi.org/10.22395/seec.v19n40a1.
Jaén-García, Manuel. (2017). A Demand Determinants Model for Public Spending in Spain. En: International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 7 n,o 4, p. 372-386.
Jordana, Jacint y Ramío, Carles. (2005). Gobierno y Administración. En: Tafunell, Xavier y Carreras Albert. Estadísticas Históricas de España .Madrid: BBVA, p.973-1026.
Lowery, David y Berry, William. (1983). The Growth of Government in the United States: An Em-pirical Assessment of Competing Explanations. En: American Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, n.o 4, p. 665-694. Doi: 10.2307/2110888
Meltzer, Allan y Richard, Scott. (1978). Why Government Grows (and Grows) in a Democracy. En: Public Interest, vol. 52, p. 111-118.
Meltzer, Allan y Richard, Scott. (1981). A Rational Theory of the Size of Government. En: Journal of Political Economy, vol. 89, n.o 5, p. 914-927.
Meltzer, Allan y Richard, Scott. (1983). Tests of a rational theory of the size of government. En: Public Choice, vol. 41, n.o 3, p. 403-418.
Ministerio de Hacienda y Administraciones Públicas (varios años): “Boletín estadístico del personal al servicio de las Administraciones Públicas”. http://www.minhafp.gob.es/es ES/Areas%20Tematicas/funcion%20publica/Paginas/boletin _ rcp.aspx.
Ministerio de Hacienda y Administraciones Públicas (varios años). “Estadísticas de los declarantes del impuesto sobre la renta”. https://www.agenciatributaria.es/AEAT.internet/datosabiertos/catalogo/hacienda/Estadistica _ de _ los _ declarantes _ del _ IRPF.
Mueller, Dennis. (2003). Public Choice III. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 768 p.
Niskanen, William. (1968). The Peculiar Economics of Bureaucracy. En: American Economic Review, vol. 58, n.o 2, p. 293-305.
Niskanen, William. (1971). Bureaucracy and Representative Government. Nueva Jersey: Transaction Publishers, 251 p.
Neck, Reinhard y Schneider, Friedrich. (1988). The Growth of the Public Sector in Austria: An Exploratory Analysis. En: Contributions to Economic Analysis, vol. 171, p. 231-263. Doi: doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-70426-9.50015-9
Pesaran, Hashem. (1997). The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run. En: Economic Journal, vol. 107, n.o 440, p. 178–191.
Pesaran, Hashem y Shin, Yongcheol. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. En: Strom, Steiner (Ed.). Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 371–413.
Pesaran, Hashem y Smith, Ron. (1995). Estimating long run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. En: Journal of Econometrics, vol. 68, p. 79–113. Doi: doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-F
Pollitt, Christopher. (1995). Justification by Works or by Faith? Evaluating the New Public Management. En: Evaluation, vol. 1, no. 2, p. 133-154. Doi: doi.org/10.1177/135638909500100202
Pommerehne, Werner y Schneider, Friedrich. (1978). Fiscal Illusion, Political Institutions and Local Public Spending. En: Kyklos, vol. 31, n.° 3, p. 381-408.
Tridimas, George. (1992). Budgetary Deficits and Government Expenditure Growth: Toward a More Accurate Empirical Specification. En: Public Finance Quarterly, vol. 20, no. 3, p. 275-297. Doi: 10.1177/109114219202000301
Valle, Victorio. (1996). La hacienda pública de la democracia española: principales rasgos. En: Papeles de Economía Española, n.° 68, p 2-9.
Wagner, Richard. (1976). Revenue structure, fiscal illusion and budgetary choice. En: Public Choice, vol. 25.
Aranson, Peter y Ordeshook, Peter. (1977). Incrementalism, the fiscal illusion and the growth of government in representative democracies. Miami: University of Miami, 80 p.
Bergstrom, Theodore y Goodman, Robert. (1973). Private Demands for Public Goods. En: American Economic Review, vol. 63, n.o 3, p. 280-296.
Borcherding, Thomas; Bush, Winston y Spann, Robert. (1977). The effects on public spending of the divisibility of public outputs in consumption, bureaucratic power and the size of the tax-sharing group. En: Borcherding, Thomas. (Ed.). Budgets and Bureaucrats: The Sources
of Government Growth. Ann Arbor: Umi Research Pr, p. 211-228.
Borcherding, Thomas. (1985). The causes of government expenditure growth: A survey of the U.S. evidence. En: Journal of Public Economics, vol. 28, n.o 3, p. 359-382. Doi: doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(85)90065-9
Borcherding, Thomas y Deacon, Robert. (1972). The demand for the services of non-federal governments. En: American Economic Review, vol. 62, n.o 5, p. 891-901.
Bush, Winston y Denzau, Arthur. (1977). The voting behavior of bureaucrats and public sector growth. En Borcherding, Thomas (Ed.). Budgets and Bureaucrats: The Sources of Government Growth. Ann Arbor: Umi Research Pr, p. 90-99.
Comin, Francisco y Díaz, Daniel (2005). Sector público administrativo y estado del bienestar. En: Tufannel, Xavier y Carrearas Albert. Estadísticas Históricas de España. Fundación BBVA. Madrid, p.873974.
Courakis, Anthony; Moura-Roque, Fátima y Tridimas, George. (1993). Public expenditure growth in Greece and Portugal: Wagner´s law and beyond. En: Applied Economics, vol. 25, n.o 1, p. 125-134. Doi: 10.1080/00036849300000121
Cullis, John y Jones, Philip. (2009). Public Finance and Public Choice. Analytical Perspectives. Oxford: University Press, 560 p.
Gemmell, Norman. (1990). Wagner’s Law, Relative Prices and the Size of the Public Sector. En: Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, vol. 58, n.o 4, p. 361-377. Doi: /abs/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1990.tb00428.x
Gemmell, Norman. (Ed.). (1993). The Growth of the Public Sector: Theories and International Evidence. Aldershot: Edward Elgar Publishing, 261 p.
Gemmell, Norman; Gill, Derek y Nguyen, Loc. (2016). Explaining the Size of the State in New Zealand, 1972-2014. Wellington: Victoria University of Wellington, 36 p.
Hood, Christopher. (1991). A Public Management for All Seasons? En: Public Administration, vol. 69, p. 3-19.
Jaén-García, Manuel. (2004). Evolución contemporánea del gasto público en España. Almería: Universidad de Almería, 240 p.
Jaén-García, Manuel. (2016). Public expenditure and deficit in Spain (1958-2014). En: Semestre Económico, vol. 19, n.o 40, p. 17-52. Doi: doi.org/10.22395/seec.v19n40a1.
Jaén-García, Manuel. (2017). A Demand Determinants Model for Public Spending in Spain. En: International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 7 n,o 4, p. 372-386.
Jordana, Jacint y Ramío, Carles. (2005). Gobierno y Administración. En: Tafunell, Xavier y Carreras Albert. Estadísticas Históricas de España .Madrid: BBVA, p.973-1026.
Lowery, David y Berry, William. (1983). The Growth of Government in the United States: An Em-pirical Assessment of Competing Explanations. En: American Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, n.o 4, p. 665-694. Doi: 10.2307/2110888
Meltzer, Allan y Richard, Scott. (1978). Why Government Grows (and Grows) in a Democracy. En: Public Interest, vol. 52, p. 111-118.
Meltzer, Allan y Richard, Scott. (1981). A Rational Theory of the Size of Government. En: Journal of Political Economy, vol. 89, n.o 5, p. 914-927.
Meltzer, Allan y Richard, Scott. (1983). Tests of a rational theory of the size of government. En: Public Choice, vol. 41, n.o 3, p. 403-418.
Ministerio de Hacienda y Administraciones Públicas (varios años): “Boletín estadístico del personal al servicio de las Administraciones Públicas”. http://www.minhafp.gob.es/es ES/Areas%20Tematicas/funcion%20publica/Paginas/boletin _ rcp.aspx.
Ministerio de Hacienda y Administraciones Públicas (varios años). “Estadísticas de los declarantes del impuesto sobre la renta”. https://www.agenciatributaria.es/AEAT.internet/datosabiertos/catalogo/hacienda/Estadistica _ de _ los _ declarantes _ del _ IRPF.
Mueller, Dennis. (2003). Public Choice III. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 768 p.
Niskanen, William. (1968). The Peculiar Economics of Bureaucracy. En: American Economic Review, vol. 58, n.o 2, p. 293-305.
Niskanen, William. (1971). Bureaucracy and Representative Government. Nueva Jersey: Transaction Publishers, 251 p.
Neck, Reinhard y Schneider, Friedrich. (1988). The Growth of the Public Sector in Austria: An Exploratory Analysis. En: Contributions to Economic Analysis, vol. 171, p. 231-263. Doi: doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-70426-9.50015-9
Pesaran, Hashem. (1997). The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run. En: Economic Journal, vol. 107, n.o 440, p. 178–191.
Pesaran, Hashem y Shin, Yongcheol. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. En: Strom, Steiner (Ed.). Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 371–413.
Pesaran, Hashem y Smith, Ron. (1995). Estimating long run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. En: Journal of Econometrics, vol. 68, p. 79–113. Doi: doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-F
Pollitt, Christopher. (1995). Justification by Works or by Faith? Evaluating the New Public Management. En: Evaluation, vol. 1, no. 2, p. 133-154. Doi: doi.org/10.1177/135638909500100202
Pommerehne, Werner y Schneider, Friedrich. (1978). Fiscal Illusion, Political Institutions and Local Public Spending. En: Kyklos, vol. 31, n.° 3, p. 381-408.
Tridimas, George. (1992). Budgetary Deficits and Government Expenditure Growth: Toward a More Accurate Empirical Specification. En: Public Finance Quarterly, vol. 20, no. 3, p. 275-297. Doi: 10.1177/109114219202000301
Valle, Victorio. (1996). La hacienda pública de la democracia española: principales rasgos. En: Papeles de Economía Española, n.° 68, p 2-9.
Wagner, Richard. (1976). Revenue structure, fiscal illusion and budgetary choice. En: Public Choice, vol. 25.
