Advance Search

Efeitos da internacionalização sobre a procura de trabalho na indústria manufatureira colombiana – 1974 a 2015

Sonia Alexandra Agudelo Ayala | Biografia
Universidad de Medellín
Palavras-chave:
Copyright and Licensing:

Copyright (c) 2022 Semestre Económico

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Resumo

Colômbia experimentou uma significativa mudança estrutural no começo dos anos noventa. Esta mudança estrutural está relacionada com as grandes reformas do comércio e do mercado de trabalho empreendidas no ano de 1992, ano este considerado como a da mudança. Este trabalho centra-se em avaliar se a transformação estrutural na exposição ao comércio internacional afetou significativamente a resposta do emprego face as alterações salariais na indústria manufatureira. É utilizado o marco de Hamermesh (1993) para explicar o efeito geral sobre o emprego, que é composto dos efeitos da substituição e de escala. Este efeito geral quantifica-se empiricamente e se desentranham seus dois componentes. Encontramos que a elasticidade do trabalho de uma mudança salarial passou de -1.05 em 1974 a -1.56 em 1992-2015. Pelos componentes, o efeito de substituição aumentou de -0.68 a -1.19, e o efeito de escala se manteve estável em -0.38. Estes resultados sugerem que a liberalização do comércio tem tido consequências negativas no bem estar dos trabalhadores. Uma maior sensibilidade na procura de mão de obra tem sido associada a uma maior carga tributária dos trabalhadores e uma maior instabilidade dos resultados do mercado laboral (Rodrik, 1997). Por conseguinte, os aumentos da imposição sobre as folhas de pagamento experimentados durante os anos noventa podem ter provocado a diminuição dos postos de trabalho e um aumento tributário dos trabalhadores, enquanto que os processos de substituição de capital pelo trabalho podem ter sido acelerado devido a maior sensibilidade do emprego.

PDF (English)
PDF (English)

Referências

  1. Acemoglu, D., Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G. H., & Price, B. (2016). Import competition and the great US employment sag of the 2000s. Journal of Labor Economics, 34(1) Part 2, S141-S198. https://doi.org/10.1086/682384.
  2. Agudelo, S. A. (2019). Three essays on the Colombian labour market: a macroeconomic perspective [Ph.D.Thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona]. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/669487.
  3. Agudelo, S. A., & Sala, H. (2016). Wage setting in the Colombian manufacturing industry. Economics of Transition, 24(1), 99-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12085.
  4. Anderson, T. W., & Hsiao, C. (1982). Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 18(1), 47-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(82)90095-1.
  5. Arango, C. A., & Rojas, A.M. (2004). Demanda laboral y reforma comercial en el sector manufacturero colombiano: 1977-1999. Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 21(44), 96-154. https://doi.org/10.32468/Espe.4403.
  6. Arbache, J., Dickerson, A., & Green, F. (2004). Trade liberalisation and wages in developing countries. The Economic Journal, 114(493), F73-F96. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0013-0133.2004.00188.
  7. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some test of specification for panel data: Montecarlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economics Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968.
  8. Autor, D. H., F. Levy and R. J. Murnane (2003). The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279-1333. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552801.
  9. Autor, D. H., D. Dorn, and G.H. Hanson (2013). The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States. The American Economic Review, 103(6), 2121-2168. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.6.2121.
  10. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8.
  11. Böckerman, P., & Marilanta, M. (2012). Globalization, creative destruction, and labour share change: Evidence on the determinants and mechanisms from longitudinal plant-level data. Oxford Economic Papers New Series, 64(2), 259-280. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpr03.1.
  12. Bruno, G. S. F. (2005). Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models. Economics Letters, 87(3), 361-366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.01.005.
  13. Bruno, G. S. F., Falzoni, A. M., & Helg, R. (2004). Measuring the effect of globalization on labour demand elasticity: An empirical application to OECD countries. Working paper No. 153, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Università Commerciale “Luigi Bocconi”, 1-29.
  14. Cárdenas, M., & Bernal, R. (2004). Determinants of labor demand in Colombia. 1976-1996. NBER Chapter 4, 229-272. En J. Heckman, J.J. & Pagés, C. Law and employment: Lessons from Latin American and the Caribbean, University of Chicago Press. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/law-and-employment-lessons-latin-america-and-caribbean/determinants-labor-demand-colombia-1976-1996.
  15. Caselli, M. (2014). Trade, skill-biased technical change and wages in Mexican manufacturing. Applied Economics, 46(3), 336-348. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2013.848033.
  16. Conte, A., & Vivarelli, M. (2011). Imported skill-biased technological change in developing countries. The Developing Economics, 49(1), 36-65. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.993480.
  17. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531.
  18. Elsby, M. W. L., Hobjin, B., & Sahin, A. (2013). The decline of the US labor share. Brokings Papers on Economic Activity, 47(2), 1-63.
  19. Fajnzylber, P., & Maloney, W. F. (2005). Labor and trade reform in Latin America. Journal of International Economics, 66(2), 423-446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2004.08.002.
  20. Ferguson, C. E., & Maurice, S. C. (1973). Factor demand elasticity under monopoly and monopsonyZ Economica, 40(158), 180-186. https://doi.org/10.2307/2551779.
  21. Fisher, R. A. (1932). Statistical Methods for Research Workers. 4th Edition, Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd.
  22. Gonzaga, G., Menezes, N., & Terra, C. (2006). Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil. Journal of International Economics, 68(2), 345-367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.07.008.
  23. Greenaway, D., Morgan, W. & Wright, P. (1999). Exports, export composition and growth. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 8(1), 41-51. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000004.
  24. Hamermesh, D. (1993). Labor demand. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
  25. Hasan, R., Mitra, D., & Ramaswamy, K. V. (2007). Trade reforms, labor regulations, and labor demand elasticities: Empirical evidence from India. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(3), 466-481.
  26. Hansen, B. E. (2001). The new econometrics of structural change: Dating breaks in U.S. labour productivity. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4), 117-128. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2696520.
  27. Hijzen, A., & Swaim, P. (2010). Offshoring, labour market institutions and the elasticity of labour demand. European Economic Review, 54(8), 1016-1034. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1104698.
  28. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7.
  29. International Labour Organization -ILO- (2015). The Labour Share in G20 Economies.
  30. International Monetary Fund -IMF- (2017). World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum? Washington, April, 1-238.
  31. Isaza, J. G., y Meza, C.A. (2004). La demanda de trabajo: teoría y evidencia empírica para el caso colombiano. Equidad y Desarrollo, 1(2), 35-64. https://doi.org/10.19052/ed.392.
  32. Jafari, Y., Othman, J., & Nor, A. H. S. M. (2012). Energy consumption, economic growth and environmental pollutants in Indonesia. Journal of Policy Modelling, 34(6), 879-889. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.05.020.
  33. Judson, R. A. & Owen, A. L. (1999). Estimating dynamic panel data models: A guide for macroeconomists. Economic Letters, 65(1), 9-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00130-5.
  34. Judzik, D. & Sala, H. (2013). Productivity, deunionization and trade: Wage effects and labour share implications. International Labour Review, 152(2), 205-236. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1564-913X.2013.00178.x.
  35. Karanassou, M., Sala, H. & Snower, D.J. (2007). The macroeconomics of the labor market: Three fundamental views. Portuguese Economic Journal, 6(3), 151-180. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.950947.
  36. Krishna, P., Mitra, D., & Chinoy, S. (2001). Trade liberalization and labour demand elasticities: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of International Economics, 55(2), 391-409. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00089-7.
  37. Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P., Smith, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationary against the alternative of unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y.
  38. Levin, A., & Lin, C. (1993). Unit root tests in panel data: New results. Discussion paper No. 93-56, Department of Economics, University California at San Diego.
  39. Levin, A., Lin, C., & Chu, C. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7.
  40. Lewis, P.E.T., & MacDonald, G. (2002). The elasticity of demand for labour in Australia. Economic Record, 78(240), 18-30. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.00036.
  41. Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(4), 603-605. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631.
  42. Manning, A. (2004). We can work it out: The impact of technological change on the demand for low-skill workers. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 51(5), 581-608. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0036-9292.2004.00322.x.
  43. Malgouyres, C. (2017). The impact of Chinese import competition on the local structure of employment and wages evidence from France. Journal of Regional Science, 57(3), 411-441. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12303.
  44. Medina, C., Posso, C. M., Tamayo, J. A., & Monsalve, E. (2012). Dinámica de la demanda laboral en la industria manufacturera colombiana 1993-2009: una estimación Panel VAR. Borradores de Economía, 694. https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/borrador-694.
  45. Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica, 49(6), 1417-1426. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911408.
  46. Njikam, O. (2016). Trade liberalization, labor market regulations and labor demand in Cameroon. International Review of Economics & Finance, 43. 525-541. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.02.001.
  47. OECD (2016). Reviews of labour market and social policies: Colombia. January, 1-36. Petra, D. (2017). Determinants of labour´s income share in the era of financialisation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 41(1), 283-306. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bew023.
  48. Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182.
  49. Rodrik, D. (1997). Has globalization gone too far? Institute for International Economics, Washington.
  50. Russell, B., & Tease, W. (1991). Employment, output and real wages. Economic Record, 67(196), 34-45.
  51. Saha, B., Sen, K. & Maiti, D. (2013). Trade openness, labour institutions and flexibilisation: Theory and evidence from India. Labour Economics, 24, 180-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2013.08.008.
  52. Sala, H., & Trivín, P. (2012). Structural changes in Spanish labour demand: Does Rodrik.s conjecture hold? Article presented at the IV Congreso Nacional sobre mercado de trabajo y relaciones laborales (Universidad de Valladolid, April 2012).
  53. Selwaness, I., & Zaki, C. (2019). On the interaction between exports and labor market regulation: Evidence from the MENA countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 73, 24-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.05.011.
  54. Senses, M. Z. (2010). The effects of offshoring on the elasticity of labor demand. Journal of International Economics, 81(1), 89-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.02.001.
  55. Seo, H. J., Kim, H. S., & Lee, Y. S. (2015). Globalization and labour demand elasticities: Empirical evidence from nine OECD countries. The Korean Economic Review, 31(2), 413-439.
  56. Slaughter, M. J. (2001). International trade and labor demand elasticities. Journal of International Economics, 54 (1), 27-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(00)00057-X.
  57. Stock, J. H. & Yogo, M. (2005). Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression. In: Stock, J. H., Andrews, D. W. K., (Eds.), Identification and Inference for Econometric Models: A Festschrift in Honor of Thomas Rothenberg. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 80-108. (Ch. 5).
Como Citar
Agudelo Ayala, S. A. (2022). Efeitos da internacionalização sobre a procura de trabalho na indústria manufatureira colombiana – 1974 a 2015. Semestre Económico, 25(58), 1-48. https://doi.org/10.22395/seec.v25n58a5

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.
Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

Send mail to Author

Send Cancel

Estamos indexados em