Exportações e crescimento econômico no México, 2007-2014: uma aproximação à cointegração com dados de painel
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Copyright (c) 2018 Semestre Económico
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- Articles
- Enviado: fevereiro 23, 2018
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Publicado: fevereiro 26, 2018
Resumo
A economia mexicana tem vivenciado um crescimento significativo nas exportações como resultado da crescente integração econômica entre o México e os Estados Unidos. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o papel das exportações no crescimento econômico do México, a fim de determinar se a expansão das exportações criou efeitos dinâmicos sobre o crescimento geral da economia mexicana. A metodologia consistiu em um modelo de painel de cointegração que estimou a relação entre as exportações e o crescimento do PIB da economia mexicana no nível estadual, e usou dados de exportações e do PIB do Banco de Informações Econômicas do Instituto de Estatística, Geografia e Informática do México. Os resultados mostraram efeitos positivos, mas fracos, das exportações sobre o crescimento econômico regional do México.
Referências
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Choi, I. (2001). Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. In: Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 20, No. 2, April, p. 249-272.
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Hummels, D., Ishii J. and Yi, K. (2001). The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade. In: Journal of International Economics, Vol. 54, No.1, p. 75-96.
Im, K. S., Pesaran, H. and Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. In: Journal of Economics, Vol. 115, No, 1, p. 53-74.
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Maddala, G. and Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 61, No. 1, p. 631-652.
Mendoza, J. E. (2011). Impacto de la inversión extranjera directa en el crecimiento manufacturero. In: Problemas del Desarrollo, Vol. 167, No. 42, p. 45-69.
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Pacheco-López, P. (2005). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Imports in Mexico. In: World Economy, Vol. 28, No. 8, p. 1157-1172.
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,Vol. 61, No. 1, p. 653–670. Phillips, P. C. B. and Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) pro cesses. In: Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 57, No. 1, p. 99-125.
Ramírez, M. (2000). Foreign direct investment in Mexico: A cointegration analysis. In: The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 37, No. 1, p. 138-162.
Ramos, A. M. (2000). Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: un análisis de causalidad para México. In: Estudios Económicos, Vol. 15, No. 1, p. 37-64
Reyes, G. (2002). Exportaciones y crecimiento económico en América Latina: la evidencia empírica. In: Comercio Exterior, Vol. 51, No. 11, p. 977-984.
Ruiz-Nápoles, P. (2001). Liberalisation, Exports and Growth in Mexico 1978-94: A structural analysis. In: International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, p. 163-180.
Saikkonen, P. (1992). Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation. In: Econometric Theory, Vol. 8, No. 1, March, p. 1-27.
Sala-i-Martin, X. (1996). The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis. In: The Economic Journal, Vol. 106, No. 437, p.1019-1036.
Sengupta, J. and España, J. (1994). Exports and economic growth in Asian NICs: an econometric analysis for Korea. In: Applied Economics, Vol. 26, No. 1, p. 342-357.
Stock, J. and Watson, M. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher-Order Integrated Systems. In: Econometrica, Vol. 61, No. 4, p. 783-820.
Thornton, J. (1996). Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992. In: Economics Letters, Vol. 50, No. 3, March, p. 413-416
Tyler, W. (1981). Growth and export expansion in developing countries: Some empirical evidence. In: Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 9, No. 1, p. 121-130.
Yao, S. (2006). On economic growth, fdi and exports in China. In: Applied Economics, Vol. 38, No. 3, p. 339–351.
Berasaluce, J. and Romero, J. (2017). Economic Growth and the external sector: evidence from Korea, lessons for Mexico. In: Estudios Económicos, Vol. 32, No.1, p. 95-131.
Blomstrom, M. and Persson (1983, June). Foreign investment and spillover efficiency in an underdeveloped economy: evidence from the Mexican manufacturing industry. In: World Development, Vol. 11, No. 6, June, p. 493-501.
Breitung, J. (2001). The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data, p. 161-177. In Baltagi, B., Fomby, T., and Carter, H. (Eds.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic
Panels. Advances in Econometrics. Vol. 15, England: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 340p.
Crespo, J. and Wörz, J. (2005). On Export Composition and Growth. In: Review of World Economics / Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 141, No.1, p. 33-49.
Choi, I. (2001). Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. In: Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 20, No. 2, April, p. 249-272.
Donoso V. and Martin V. (2010). Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: estudios empíricos. Exports and economic growth: empirical studies. In: Revista Principios, No. 16, p. 5-36.
Esfahani, H. (1991). Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries. In: Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 35, No. 1, January, p. 93-116.
Feder, G. (1983). On Exports and Economic Growth. In: Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 12, No. 2 p. 59-73.
Feenstra, R. (1996). Trade and uneven growth. In: Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 49, No. 1, April, p. 229-256.
Fukao, K., Okubo, O. and Stern, R. (2003). Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under nafta. In: The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 14, No. 1, March, p. 3-24.
Gruben, W. (2001). Was nafta Behind Mexico’s High Maquiladora Growth? In: Economic and Financial Review, Third Quarter, p. 11-21.
Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneus Panel Data. Econometric Journal, Vol.3, No.1, p. 148-161.
Hanson, G. (1998, June). North American economic integration and industry location. NBER Working Paper No. 6587. Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved
from
Hanson, G. (2010). Why isn’t Mexico Rich. NBER Working Paper No. 16470. Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from
Hummels, D., Ishii J. and Yi, K. (2001). The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade. In: Journal of International Economics, Vol. 54, No.1, p. 75-96.
Im, K. S., Pesaran, H. and Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. In: Journal of Economics, Vol. 115, No, 1, p. 53-74.
Jordaan, J. (2008). Intra- and Inter-industry Externalities from Foreign Direct Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector: New Evidence from Mexican Regions. In: World Development,Vol. 36, No.12, p. 2838-2854.
Kao, C. and Chiang, M. (2001). On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data, p. 179-222. In Baltagi, B., Fomby, T., and Carter H.(Eds.), In Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels. Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 15, p. 179- 222. England: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 340p.
Levin, A., Lin, C. F. and Chu, C. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite- -Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 108, No. 1, p. 1-24.
Maddala, G. and Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 61, No. 1, p. 631-652.
Mendoza, J. E. (2011). Impacto de la inversión extranjera directa en el crecimiento manufacturero. In: Problemas del Desarrollo, Vol. 167, No. 42, p. 45-69.
Michalopoulos, C. and Jay, K. (1973). Growth of exports and income in the developing world: A neoclassical view. In: Discussion paper, No. 28. Washington, D.C.: Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, 32p.
Moreno-Brid, J. C., Rivas Valdivia, J. C. and Santamaría, J. (2002, December). Mexico: Economic growth exports and industrial performance after nafta. In: Cepal, Subsede Regional Mexico, Serie Estudios y Perspectivas No. 10, 36p.
Nunnenkamp, P., Alatorre, J. and Waldkirch, A. (2007). fdi in Mexico: An Empirical Assessment of Employment Effects (Working Paper No. 1328). Germany: Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Pacheco-López, P. (2005). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Imports in Mexico. In: World Economy, Vol. 28, No. 8, p. 1157-1172.
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,Vol. 61, No. 1, p. 653–670. Phillips, P. C. B. and Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) pro cesses. In: Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 57, No. 1, p. 99-125.
Ramírez, M. (2000). Foreign direct investment in Mexico: A cointegration analysis. In: The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 37, No. 1, p. 138-162.
Ramos, A. M. (2000). Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: un análisis de causalidad para México. In: Estudios Económicos, Vol. 15, No. 1, p. 37-64
Reyes, G. (2002). Exportaciones y crecimiento económico en América Latina: la evidencia empírica. In: Comercio Exterior, Vol. 51, No. 11, p. 977-984.
Ruiz-Nápoles, P. (2001). Liberalisation, Exports and Growth in Mexico 1978-94: A structural analysis. In: International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, p. 163-180.
Saikkonen, P. (1992). Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation. In: Econometric Theory, Vol. 8, No. 1, March, p. 1-27.
Sala-i-Martin, X. (1996). The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis. In: The Economic Journal, Vol. 106, No. 437, p.1019-1036.
Sengupta, J. and España, J. (1994). Exports and economic growth in Asian NICs: an econometric analysis for Korea. In: Applied Economics, Vol. 26, No. 1, p. 342-357.
Stock, J. and Watson, M. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher-Order Integrated Systems. In: Econometrica, Vol. 61, No. 4, p. 783-820.
Thornton, J. (1996). Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992. In: Economics Letters, Vol. 50, No. 3, March, p. 413-416
Tyler, W. (1981). Growth and export expansion in developing countries: Some empirical evidence. In: Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 9, No. 1, p. 121-130.
Yao, S. (2006). On economic growth, fdi and exports in China. In: Applied Economics, Vol. 38, No. 3, p. 339–351.
