Sazonalidade do gasto em saúde na Colômbia, 2011-2015
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Copyright (c) 2018 Semestre Económico
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- Articles
- Enviado: fevereiro 26, 2018
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Publicado: fevereiro 26, 2018
Resumo
Neste artigo, avalia-se se existe sazonalidade no gasto agregado em saúde na Colômbia entre 2011 e 2015. Para isso, constrói-se o gasto em saúde a partir das contas financeiras das empresas prestadoras dos serviços de saúde nos regimes contributivo e subsidiado, com periodicidade trimestral. Logo, aplicam-se diferentes técnicas de análise estatística para determinar se existe sazonalidade: a) método gráfico e taxas de crescimento; b) correlogramas; c) contraste não paramétrico de Kendall, d) análise de regressão múltipla com inclusão de dummies sazonais; e) ajuste de processos autorregressivos integrados de média móvel estacional. Os resultados evidenciam a existência de sazonalidade estatisticamente significativa somente para gasto em saúde realizado pelas empresas prestadoras do regime subsidiado, em especial no quarto trimestre (outubro-dezembro) de cada ano.
Referências
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Tang, C. (2009). An examination of the government spending and economic growth nexus for Malaysia using the leveraged bootstrap simulation approach. En: Global Economic Review, Vol. 38, No. 2, p. 215-227.
Tsay, R. (2005). Analysis of financial time series (2nd Ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: New Jersey, EE.UU, 613p.
Yamin, A. y Parra, O. (2010). Judicial protection of the right to health in Colombia: From social demands to individual claims to public debates. En: Hastings International & Comparative Law Review, Vol. 33, No. 2, p. 431–459.
Albouy, V.; Davezies, L. y Debrand, T. (2010). Health expenditure models: A comparison using panel data. En: Economic Modelling, Vol. 27, No. 4, p. 791-803.
Box, G. y Jenkins, G. (1976). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. Holden Day: San Francisco, EE.UU, 575p.
Brockwell, P. y Davis, R. (2002). Introduction to time series and forecasting (2nd Ed.). Springer¬-Verlag: Harrisonburg, EE.UU., 437p.
Castillo-Laborde, C. y Villalobos, P. (2013). Caracterización del gasto de bolsillo en salud en Chile: Una mirada a dos sistemas de protección. En: Revista Médica de Chile, Vol. 141, No. 11, p. 1456-1463.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0034-98872013001100013.
Clements, B.; Faircloth, C. y Verhoeven, M. (2007). Gasto público en América Latina: Tendencias y aspectos clave de política. En: Revista de la CEPAL, No. 93, p. 39-62.
Ferrand, Y.; Kelton, C.; Guo, J.; Levy, M. y Yu, Y. (2011). Using time-series intervention analysis to understand U.S. Medicaid expenditures on antidepressant agents. En: Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy, Vol. 7, No. 1, p. 64-80.
Gerdtham, U.; Søgaard, J.; Andersson, F. y Jönsson, B. (1992). An econometric analysis of health care expenditure: A cross-section study of the OECD countries. En: Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 11, No. 1, p. 63-84.
Gómez, V. y Maravall, A. (1996). Programs TRAMO and SEATS. Instructions for the User. Working Paper N° 9628, Servicio de Estudios, Banco de España, 128p.
Govindaraj, R.; Chellaraj, G. y Murray, C. (1997). Health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean. En: Social Science & Medicine, Vol. 44, No. 2, p. 157-169.
Greene, W. (2008). Econometric analysis (6th Ed.). Prentice Hall: New Jersey, EE.UU, 1178p.
Hansen, P. y King, A. (1996). The determinants of health care expenditure: A cointegration approach. En: Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 15, No. 1, p. 127-137.
Hitiris, T. y Posnett, J. (1992). The determinants and effects of health expenditure in developed countries. En: Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 11, No. 2, p. 173-181.
Ke, X.; Saksena, P. y Holly, A. (2011). The determinants of health expenditure: A country-level panel data analysis. Working paper, World Health Organization, 26 p.
Kendall, M. y Ord, K. (1990). Time series (3rd Ed.). Edward Arnold: Londres, Inglaterra, 110p.
Loh, C. (2015). Trends and structural shifts in health tourism: Evidence from seasonal time-series data on health-related travel spending by Canada during 1970-2010. En: Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 132, p. 173-180. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.03.036.
MinSalud -Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social- (2014). Cifras financieras del sector salud. Gasto en salud de Colombia: 2004-2011. En: Boletín bimestral No. 2, Dirección de Finan¬ciamiento Sectorial, 21p.
Murthy, V. y Okunade, A. (2016). Determinants of U.S. health expenditure: Evidence from autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. En: Economic Modelling, Vol. 59, p. 67-73.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.07.001.
O’Meara, G.; Ruiz, F. y Amaya, J. (2003). Impacto del aseguramiento sobre uso y gasto en salud en Colombia. Pontificia Universidad Javeriana: Bogotá, D.C., Colombia, 337p.
Pérez-Valbuena, G. y Silva-Ureña, A. (2015). Una mirada a los gastos de bolsillo en salud para Colombia. Documentos de Trabajo sobre Economía Regional, Banco de la República, N° 218, 58p.
Safaeian, L.; Mahdanian, A.; Salami, S.; Pakmehr, F. y Mansourian, M. (2015). Seasonality and physician related factors associated with antibiotic prescribing: A cross sectional study in Isfahan, Iran. En: International Journal of Preventive Medicine, Vol. 6, No. 1. Doi: 10.4103/2008-7802.151431.
Tang, C. (2009). An examination of the government spending and economic growth nexus for Malaysia using the leveraged bootstrap simulation approach. En: Global Economic Review, Vol. 38, No. 2, p. 215-227.
Tsay, R. (2005). Analysis of financial time series (2nd Ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: New Jersey, EE.UU, 613p.
Yamin, A. y Parra, O. (2010). Judicial protection of the right to health in Colombia: From social demands to individual claims to public debates. En: Hastings International & Comparative Law Review, Vol. 33, No. 2, p. 431–459.
