Seasonality of expense in health in Colombia, 2011-2015
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Copyright (c) 2018 Semestre Económico
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
- Articles
- Submitted: February 26, 2018
-
Published: February 26, 2018
Abstract
This article evaluates whether or not there was seasonality in the aggregate expense in health in Colombia between 2011 and 2015. For this purpose, expense in health is built from the financial accounts of healthcare service companies (contributory and subsidized regimes) on a quarterly basis. Then, different statistical analysis techniques are applied in order to determine if there is seasonality: i) Graphic method and growth rates; ii) correlograms; iii) Kendall non-parametric contrast; iv) multiple regression analysis with inclusion of seasonal dummies; and v) Adjustment of self-regressive integrated processes of seasonal mobile media. Results show the existence of statistically significant seasonality only for expense in health, performed by healthcare service companies (subsidized regime), especially during the fourth quarter (October-December) each year.
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Albouy, V.; Davezies, L. y Debrand, T. (2010). Health expenditure models: A comparison using panel data. En: Economic Modelling, Vol. 27, No. 4, p. 791-803.
Box, G. y Jenkins, G. (1976). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. Holden Day: San Francisco, EE.UU, 575p.
Brockwell, P. y Davis, R. (2002). Introduction to time series and forecasting (2nd Ed.). Springer¬-Verlag: Harrisonburg, EE.UU., 437p.
Castillo-Laborde, C. y Villalobos, P. (2013). Caracterización del gasto de bolsillo en salud en Chile: Una mirada a dos sistemas de protección. En: Revista Médica de Chile, Vol. 141, No. 11, p. 1456-1463.
http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0034-98872013001100013.
Clements, B.; Faircloth, C. y Verhoeven, M. (2007). Gasto público en América Latina: Tendencias y aspectos clave de política. En: Revista de la CEPAL, No. 93, p. 39-62.
Ferrand, Y.; Kelton, C.; Guo, J.; Levy, M. y Yu, Y. (2011). Using time-series intervention analysis to understand U.S. Medicaid expenditures on antidepressant agents. En: Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy, Vol. 7, No. 1, p. 64-80.
Gerdtham, U.; Søgaard, J.; Andersson, F. y Jönsson, B. (1992). An econometric analysis of health care expenditure: A cross-section study of the OECD countries. En: Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 11, No. 1, p. 63-84.
Gómez, V. y Maravall, A. (1996). Programs TRAMO and SEATS. Instructions for the User. Working Paper N° 9628, Servicio de Estudios, Banco de España, 128p.
Govindaraj, R.; Chellaraj, G. y Murray, C. (1997). Health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean. En: Social Science & Medicine, Vol. 44, No. 2, p. 157-169.
Greene, W. (2008). Econometric analysis (6th Ed.). Prentice Hall: New Jersey, EE.UU, 1178p.
Hansen, P. y King, A. (1996). The determinants of health care expenditure: A cointegration approach. En: Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 15, No. 1, p. 127-137.
Hitiris, T. y Posnett, J. (1992). The determinants and effects of health expenditure in developed countries. En: Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 11, No. 2, p. 173-181.
Ke, X.; Saksena, P. y Holly, A. (2011). The determinants of health expenditure: A country-level panel data analysis. Working paper, World Health Organization, 26 p.
Kendall, M. y Ord, K. (1990). Time series (3rd Ed.). Edward Arnold: Londres, Inglaterra, 110p.
Loh, C. (2015). Trends and structural shifts in health tourism: Evidence from seasonal time-series data on health-related travel spending by Canada during 1970-2010. En: Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 132, p. 173-180. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.03.036.
MinSalud -Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social- (2014). Cifras financieras del sector salud. Gasto en salud de Colombia: 2004-2011. En: Boletín bimestral No. 2, Dirección de Finan¬ciamiento Sectorial, 21p.
Murthy, V. y Okunade, A. (2016). Determinants of U.S. health expenditure: Evidence from autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. En: Economic Modelling, Vol. 59, p. 67-73.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.07.001.
O’Meara, G.; Ruiz, F. y Amaya, J. (2003). Impacto del aseguramiento sobre uso y gasto en salud en Colombia. Pontificia Universidad Javeriana: Bogotá, D.C., Colombia, 337p.
Pérez-Valbuena, G. y Silva-Ureña, A. (2015). Una mirada a los gastos de bolsillo en salud para Colombia. Documentos de Trabajo sobre Economía Regional, Banco de la República, N° 218, 58p.
Safaeian, L.; Mahdanian, A.; Salami, S.; Pakmehr, F. y Mansourian, M. (2015). Seasonality and physician related factors associated with antibiotic prescribing: A cross sectional study in Isfahan, Iran. En: International Journal of Preventive Medicine, Vol. 6, No. 1. Doi: 10.4103/2008-7802.151431.
Tang, C. (2009). An examination of the government spending and economic growth nexus for Malaysia using the leveraged bootstrap simulation approach. En: Global Economic Review, Vol. 38, No. 2, p. 215-227.
Tsay, R. (2005). Analysis of financial time series (2nd Ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: New Jersey, EE.UU, 613p.
Yamin, A. y Parra, O. (2010). Judicial protection of the right to health in Colombia: From social demands to individual claims to public debates. En: Hastings International & Comparative Law Review, Vol. 33, No. 2, p. 431–459.
