Despesa pública e do défice em Espanha (1958-2014)
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Publicado: setembro 30, 2016
Resumo
O propósito deste trabalho é analisar um modelo reduzido de determinantes do crescimento do gasto público desde o lado da demanda. O modelo está baseado na hipótese Buchanan e Wagner mas se há adicionado diversas variáveis que se consideram determinantes de demanda do gasto público. A formulação de duas equações diferentes confirma a influência do déficit no crescimento do gasto público no período 1958-2014. O trabalho aporta duas novidades à análise dos determinantes do gasto público na Espanha. Por uma parte se estende consideravelmente o período objeto de estudo. Por outra se usa a análise de raízes unitárias e co-integração com pontos de ruptura que não há sido utilizado anteriormente neste caso.
Referências
Asworth, J. (1995). The Empirical Relationship between Budgetary Deficits and Government Expenditure Growth: An Examination using Co-integration. In: Public Finance, Vol. 50, No. 1, pp. 1-18.
Beck, M. (1976). The Expanding Public Sector: Some Contrary Evidence. In: National Tax Journal, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 15-2.
Beck, M. (1981). Government Spending. Trend and Issues. New York: Praeger, First edition, 135p.
Bergstrom, T.C. and Goodman, R.P. (1973). Private Demands for Public Goods. In: American Economic Review Vol. 63, No. 3, pp. 280-296.
Borcherding, T.E. (1985). The Causes of Government Expenditure Growth: A Survey of the U.S. Evidence. In: Journal of Public Economics Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 359-382.
Borcherding, T.E. and Deacon, R.T. (1972). The Demand for Services of Non-Federal Governments. In: American Economic Review, Vol. 62, No. 5, p. 891-901.
Buchanan J. and Wagner, R. (1977): Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes. Academic Press. New York, 185p.
Courakis, A.S.; Roque-Moura, F. and Tridimas, G. (1993). Public Expenditure Growth. In Greece and Portugal: Wagner´s Law and Beyond. In: Applied Economics, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 125-134.
Craigwell, R. (1991). Government deficits and spending in Barbados: An empirical test of the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis. In: Public Finance, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 373-381.
Christopoulos, D. and Tsionas, E.G. (2003). Testing the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis: European evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests. In: Public Choice Vol. 115, No. 3, pp. 439-453.
Elliot, G.; Rothenberg, T. and Stock, J. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive unit root. In: Econometrica, Vol. 64, No. 4, pp. 813-836.
Fuentes, E. and Barea, J. (1996). El Déficit Público en la Democracia Española. In: Papeles de Economía Española No. 68, pp. 86-191.
Hernández Garcia, G. (1996). La deuda pública en la democracia. In: Papeles de Economía Española No. 68, pp. 214-227.
Hondroyiannis, G. and Papapetrou, E. (2001). An investigation of the public deficits and government spending relationship: evidence for Greece. In: Public Choice, Vol. 107, No. 1-2, pp. 169-182.
Jaén, M. (1999). Gasto público, déficit y cointegración. Un análisis de la hipótesis Buchanan-Wagner en el caso español. In: Hacienda Pública Española Vol. 150, No. 3, p.161-172.
Jaén, M. (2011). Empirical analysis of Wagner´s law for the Spain´s regions. In: International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences. Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 1-17.
Jaén, M. and Molina, A. (1997). Un estudio empírico de la ley de Wagner aplicado al caso español. In: Hacienda Pública Española, No. 141-142, pp. 277-285.
Jaén, M. and Molína, A. (1999). Evidencia Empírica Adicional sobre la Ley de Wagner: España 1901-1992. In: Hacienda Pública Española, No. 148, pp. 169-174.
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoagressive Models. In: Econometrica, Vol. 52, No. 6, pp. 1551-80.
Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximun Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-With Applications to the Demand for Money. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, No. 2, pp. 169-210.
Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1992). Testing Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK. In: Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 53, No. 1-3, pp. 211-244.
Johansen, S.; Mosconi, R. and Nielsen, B (2000). Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend. In: Econometric Journal, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 216-249.
Khan, A. H. (1988). Public Spending and deficits: Evidence from a developing economy. In: Public Finance, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 396-402.
Kuckuck, J. (2014). Testing Wagner´s Law at different stages of economic development. In: Finanzarchiv/Public Finance Analysis, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 128-168.
Kwiatkowski, D.; Phillips, P.; Schmidt,P. and Shin,Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a unit root. In: Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 54, No. 1-3, pp. 159-178.
Legrenzi, G.; Milas, C (2002). The Role of Omitted Variables in Identifying a Long-run Equilibrium Relationship for the Italian Government Growth. In: International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 435-449.
Lilliefors, H (1967). On the Kolmogorv-Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown. In: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 62 pp. 399-402.
Lumsdaine, R. and D. Papell (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit root hypothesis. In: Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 79, No. 2, pp. 212-218.
MacKinnon, J, G. (1991). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests, Chapter 13. In: R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger (eds.), Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 19p.
Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of unit root Tests with Good Size and Power. In: Econometrica, Vol. 69 No. 6, pp. 1519-1554.
Niskanen, W. (1978). Deficits, Government Spending and Inflation. What is the Evidence? In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 591-602.
Perron, P (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis. In: Econometrica, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp. 215-36.
Perron, P. and Vogelsand, T. J. (1993). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Erratum. In: Econometrica. Vol. 61, No. 1, pp. 248-249
Priesmeier, C. and Koester, G. (2012). Does Wagner´s law ruin the sustainability of German public finances? Discussion Paper, No. 8, Deutsche Bundesbank, 48p.
Provopoulos, G.A. (1982). Public spending and deficits: The Greek experience. In: Public Finance, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 422-446.
Raymond, J.L. and González-Páramo, J.M. (1988). Déficit, Impuestos y Crecimiento del Gasto Público. In: Papeles de Economía Española No. 37. pp. 125-144.
Schmidt, P. and Phillips, P.C.B. (1992). LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 54, No. 3, pp. 257-287.
Serrano Sanz, J.M. (1999). Sector Público. Cap. 13. In: J.L. Garcia (dir): Lecciones de Economía Española. Madrid, Ed. Civitas, 4ª ed.
Tridimas, G. (1992). Budgetary Deficits and Government Expenditure Growth: Toward a More Accurate Empirical Especification. In: Public Finance Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 3, p. 275-297.
Yay, T. and Tastan, H (2009). Growth of Public Expenditures in Turkey during the 1950-2004 Period: an Econometric Analysis. In: Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, No. 4, pp. 101-118
Zivot, E. and Andrews, K. (1992). Further Evidence On The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 10, No. 10, pp. 251–70.
Beck, M. (1976). The Expanding Public Sector: Some Contrary Evidence. In: National Tax Journal, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 15-2.
Beck, M. (1981). Government Spending. Trend and Issues. New York: Praeger, First edition, 135p.
Bergstrom, T.C. and Goodman, R.P. (1973). Private Demands for Public Goods. In: American Economic Review Vol. 63, No. 3, pp. 280-296.
Borcherding, T.E. (1985). The Causes of Government Expenditure Growth: A Survey of the U.S. Evidence. In: Journal of Public Economics Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 359-382.
Borcherding, T.E. and Deacon, R.T. (1972). The Demand for Services of Non-Federal Governments. In: American Economic Review, Vol. 62, No. 5, p. 891-901.
Buchanan J. and Wagner, R. (1977): Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes. Academic Press. New York, 185p.
Courakis, A.S.; Roque-Moura, F. and Tridimas, G. (1993). Public Expenditure Growth. In Greece and Portugal: Wagner´s Law and Beyond. In: Applied Economics, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 125-134.
Craigwell, R. (1991). Government deficits and spending in Barbados: An empirical test of the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis. In: Public Finance, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 373-381.
Christopoulos, D. and Tsionas, E.G. (2003). Testing the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis: European evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests. In: Public Choice Vol. 115, No. 3, pp. 439-453.
Elliot, G.; Rothenberg, T. and Stock, J. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive unit root. In: Econometrica, Vol. 64, No. 4, pp. 813-836.
Fuentes, E. and Barea, J. (1996). El Déficit Público en la Democracia Española. In: Papeles de Economía Española No. 68, pp. 86-191.
Hernández Garcia, G. (1996). La deuda pública en la democracia. In: Papeles de Economía Española No. 68, pp. 214-227.
Hondroyiannis, G. and Papapetrou, E. (2001). An investigation of the public deficits and government spending relationship: evidence for Greece. In: Public Choice, Vol. 107, No. 1-2, pp. 169-182.
Jaén, M. (1999). Gasto público, déficit y cointegración. Un análisis de la hipótesis Buchanan-Wagner en el caso español. In: Hacienda Pública Española Vol. 150, No. 3, p.161-172.
Jaén, M. (2011). Empirical analysis of Wagner´s law for the Spain´s regions. In: International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences. Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 1-17.
Jaén, M. and Molina, A. (1997). Un estudio empírico de la ley de Wagner aplicado al caso español. In: Hacienda Pública Española, No. 141-142, pp. 277-285.
Jaén, M. and Molína, A. (1999). Evidencia Empírica Adicional sobre la Ley de Wagner: España 1901-1992. In: Hacienda Pública Española, No. 148, pp. 169-174.
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoagressive Models. In: Econometrica, Vol. 52, No. 6, pp. 1551-80.
Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximun Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-With Applications to the Demand for Money. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, No. 2, pp. 169-210.
Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1992). Testing Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK. In: Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 53, No. 1-3, pp. 211-244.
Johansen, S.; Mosconi, R. and Nielsen, B (2000). Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend. In: Econometric Journal, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 216-249.
Khan, A. H. (1988). Public Spending and deficits: Evidence from a developing economy. In: Public Finance, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 396-402.
Kuckuck, J. (2014). Testing Wagner´s Law at different stages of economic development. In: Finanzarchiv/Public Finance Analysis, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 128-168.
Kwiatkowski, D.; Phillips, P.; Schmidt,P. and Shin,Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a unit root. In: Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 54, No. 1-3, pp. 159-178.
Legrenzi, G.; Milas, C (2002). The Role of Omitted Variables in Identifying a Long-run Equilibrium Relationship for the Italian Government Growth. In: International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 435-449.
Lilliefors, H (1967). On the Kolmogorv-Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown. In: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 62 pp. 399-402.
Lumsdaine, R. and D. Papell (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit root hypothesis. In: Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 79, No. 2, pp. 212-218.
MacKinnon, J, G. (1991). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests, Chapter 13. In: R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger (eds.), Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 19p.
Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of unit root Tests with Good Size and Power. In: Econometrica, Vol. 69 No. 6, pp. 1519-1554.
Niskanen, W. (1978). Deficits, Government Spending and Inflation. What is the Evidence? In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 591-602.
Perron, P (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis. In: Econometrica, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp. 215-36.
Perron, P. and Vogelsand, T. J. (1993). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Erratum. In: Econometrica. Vol. 61, No. 1, pp. 248-249
Priesmeier, C. and Koester, G. (2012). Does Wagner´s law ruin the sustainability of German public finances? Discussion Paper, No. 8, Deutsche Bundesbank, 48p.
Provopoulos, G.A. (1982). Public spending and deficits: The Greek experience. In: Public Finance, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 422-446.
Raymond, J.L. and González-Páramo, J.M. (1988). Déficit, Impuestos y Crecimiento del Gasto Público. In: Papeles de Economía Española No. 37. pp. 125-144.
Schmidt, P. and Phillips, P.C.B. (1992). LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 54, No. 3, pp. 257-287.
Serrano Sanz, J.M. (1999). Sector Público. Cap. 13. In: J.L. Garcia (dir): Lecciones de Economía Española. Madrid, Ed. Civitas, 4ª ed.
Tridimas, G. (1992). Budgetary Deficits and Government Expenditure Growth: Toward a More Accurate Empirical Especification. In: Public Finance Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 3, p. 275-297.
Yay, T. and Tastan, H (2009). Growth of Public Expenditures in Turkey during the 1950-2004 Period: an Econometric Analysis. In: Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, No. 4, pp. 101-118
Zivot, E. and Andrews, K. (1992). Further Evidence On The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 10, No. 10, pp. 251–70.
