Duas comparações empíricas da lei de Wagner: Espanha 1850-2016
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Conteúdo do artigo principal
Resumo
Este trabalho realiza duas comparações empíricas da conhecida Lei de Wagner de expansão da despesa pública. Por um lado, é considerado uma conhecida comparação que utiliza instrumentos de raízes unitárias e cointegração. Por outro, utiliza-se do contraste menos conhecido por meio da metodologia wavelet. O período considerado, 1850-2016, é o mais longo dos utilizados até o momento em qualquer contraste da lei com dados espanhóis. Os resultados nos indicam que não se pode recusar a lei de Wagner para a totalidade da amostra, incluindo na equação de cointegração e no MCE as rupturas estruturais, enquanto na segunda a precedência da despesa em relação com o PIB e vice-versa não permite afirmar o cumprimento da lei salvo em períodos muito curtos, por isso, e com caráter geral, a lei pode ser rejeitada para o período completo.
Detalhes do artigo
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