Duas comparações empíricas da lei de Wagner: Espanha 1850-2016
Conteúdo do artigo principal
Resumo
Este trabalho realiza duas comparações empíricas da conhecida Lei de Wagner de expansão da despesa pública. Por um lado, é considerado uma conhecida comparação que utiliza instrumentos de raízes unitárias e cointegração. Por outro, utiliza-se do contraste menos conhecido por meio da metodologia wavelet. O período considerado, 1850-2016, é o mais longo dos utilizados até o momento em qualquer contraste da lei com dados espanhóis. Os resultados nos indicam que não se pode recusar a lei de Wagner para a totalidade da amostra, incluindo na equação de cointegração e no MCE as rupturas estruturais, enquanto na segunda a precedência da despesa em relação com o PIB e vice-versa não permite afirmar o cumprimento da lei salvo em períodos muito curtos, por isso, e com caráter geral, a lei pode ser rejeitada para o período completo.
Detalhes do artigo
Referências
Afonso, Antonio y Alves, José (2017). Reconsidering Wagner’s law: evidence from the functions of the government. En: Applied Economics Letters, vol. 24, n.° 5, p. 346-350.
Aguiar-Conraria, Luis y Soares, María Joana (2014). The continuous wavelet transform: moving beyond uni and bivariate analysis. En: Journal of Economic Surveys, vol. 28, n.° 2, p. 344-375.
Akitoby, Bernardin; Clements, Benedict; Gupta, Sanjeev e Inchauste, Gabriela (2006). Public spending, voracity and Wagner’s law in developing countries. En: European Journal or Political Economy, vol. 22, n.° 4, p. 908-924.
Alcaide, Julio (1988). El gasto público en la democracia española. Los hechos. En: Papeles de Economía Española, n.° 37, p. 2-41.
Barciela López, Carlos (2010) Guerra civil y primer franquismo (1936-1959). En: Comín, Francisco; Hernández, Mauro y Llopis, Enrique (Eds.). Historia económica de España: siglos X-XX. Barcelona: Editorial Crítica, p. 331-368.
Bird, Richard (1971). Wagner’s law of expanding state activity. En: Public Finance, vol. 26, n.° 1, p. 1-26.
Biswal, Bagala; Dhawan, Urvashi y Lee, Hooi-Yean (1999). Testing Wagner versus Keynes using disaggregated public expenditure data for Canada. En: Applied Economics, vol. 31, n.° 4, p. 1283-1291.
Bolt, Jutta y van Zaden, Jan Luiten (2014). The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts. En: The Economic History Review, vol. 67, n.° 3, p. 607-891.
Burney, Nadeem (2002). Wagner’s hypothesis: evidence from Kuwait using cointegration tests. En: Applied Economics, vol. 34, n.° 1, p. 49-58.
Burney, Nadeem y Al-Mussallam, Naddia (1999). Wagner’s law and public expenditure growth in Kuwait. En: OPEC Review, vol. 22, n.° 2, p. 139-171.
Carreras, Albert; Prados, Leandro y Rosés, Joan (2005). Renta y riqueza. En: Carreras, Alberty Tafunell, Xavier (Coords.). Estadísticas históricas de España. Siglos XIX-XX. Madrid: Fundación BBVA, p. 1297-1376.
Cavicchioli, Maddalena y Pistoresi, Barbara (2016). Testing threshold cointegration in Wagner’s law: The role of military spending. En: Economic Modelling, vol. 59, p. 23-31.
Chang, Tsangyao (2002). An econometric test of Wagner’s law for six countries based in cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. En: Applied Economics, vol. 34, n.°9, p. 1157-1169.
Chang, Tsangyao; Liu, WenRong y Caudill, Steven (2004). A re-examination of Wagner’s law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. En: Applied Financial Economics, vol. 14, n.° 8, p. 577-589.
Comín, Francisco (1985). La evolución del gasto del Estado en España 1901-1972: contrastación de dos teorías. En: Martín, Pablo y Prados, Leandro (Eds.). La nueva historia económica en España. Madrid: Tecnos, p. 317-342.
Comín, Francisco (1988). Evolución histórica del gasto público. En: Papeles de Economía Española, n.° 37, p. 78-99.
Comín, Francisco (1996). Historia de la hacienda pública, II. España (1808-1995). Barcelona: Editorial Crítica, 412p.
Comín, Francisco (2010). El periodo de entreguerras (1914-1936). En: Comín, Francisco; Hernández, Mauro y Llopis, Enrique (Eds.). Historia económica de España: siglos X-XX. Barcelona: Editorial Crítica, p. 285-330.
Comín, Francisco y Díaz, Daniel (2005). Sector público administrativo y estado del bienestar. En: Carreras, Albert y Tafunell, Xavier (Coords.). Estadísticas históricas de España. Siglos XIX-XX. Madrid: Fundación BBVA, p. 873-966.
Díaz-Fuentes, Daniel y Revuelta, Julio (2013). La relación a largo plazo entre crecimiento económico y gasto público en España (1850-2000). En: Investigaciones de Historia Económica, vol. 9, n.° 1, p. 32-42.
Friedman, Milton (1978). The limitations of tax limitation. En: Policy Review, n.° 5, p. 7-14.
Funashima, Yoshito (2017). Wagner’s law versus displacement effect. En: Applied Economics, vol. 49, n.° 7, p. 619-634.
García Delgado, José Luis (2015). Etapas y rasgos definidores de la industrialización española. En: García Delgado, José Luís (Dir.). Lecciones de economía española. Madrid: Civitas, p. 21-40.
García Santos, Narciso y Martín, Pablo (1990). El comportamiento del gasto público en España durante la Segunda República, 1931-1935. En: Revista de Historia Económica, vol. 8, n.° 2, p. 397-415.
González, Miguel (Coord.) (1998). Temas de economía española. Valencia: Tirant lo Blanch, 325p.
Gemmell, Norman (1993). Wagner’s law and Musgrave’s hypotheses. En: Gemmell, Norman (Ed.). The growth of public sector. Theories and international evidence. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, p. 103-118.
Giles, David y Godwin, Ryan (2012). Testing for multivariate cointegration in the presence of structural breaks: p-values and critical values. En: Applied Economics Letters, vol. 19, n.° 16, p. 1561-1565.
Henrekson, Magnus (1990). Wagner’s law. En: Henrekson, Magnus (Ed.). An economic analysis of Swedish government expenditure. Aldershot: Avebury, p. 27-45
Henrekson, Magnus (1993). Wagner’s law- a spurious relationship? En: Public Finance, vol. 48, n.° 2, p. 406-415.
Hondroyiannis, George y Papapetrou, Evangelia (1995). An examination of Wagner’s law for Greece: a cointegration analysis. En: Public Finance, vol. 50, n.° 1, p. 67-79.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística (2002-2016). Contabilidad Nacional de España. www.ine.es. Intervención General de la Administración del Estado (2002-2016). Contabilidad nacional.
Clasificación funcional del gasto de las Administraciones Públicas (COFOG). www.igae.pap.minhafp.gob.es
Jaén-García, Manuel (2004). La ley de Wagner. Un análisis sintético. Madrid: Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, 59p.
Jaén-García, Manuel (2011). Empirical analysis of Wagner’s law for the Spain’s regions. En: International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 1, n.° 1, p. 1-17.
Jaén-García, Manuel (2017). An empirical study of Wagner’s law applied to the Spanish case. En: Presupuesto y Gasto Público, n.° 88, p. 25-42.
Jaén-García, Manuel (2018). Wagner’s law: a revision and a new empirical estimation. En: Review of Public Economics, n.° 224, p. 13-35.
Karagianni, Stella; Pempetzoglou, Maria y Strikou, Soultana (2002). Testing Wagner’s law for the European Union economies. En: Journal of Applied Business Research, vol. 18, n.° 4, p. 107-115.
Keho, Yaya (2016). Testing Wagner’s law in the presence of structural changes: new evidence from six African countries (1960-2013). En: International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 6, n.° 1, p. 1-6.
Keynes, John Maynard (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Londres: Palgrave Macmillan, 472p.
Kuckuck, Jan (2014). Testing Wagner’s law at different stages of economic development. En: FinanzArchiv, vol. 70, n.° 1, p.128-168.
Lamartina, Serena y Zaghini, Andrea (2008). Increasing public expenditures: Wagner’s law in OECD countries. https://bit.ly/3hgFd89
Legrenzi, Girotto (2000). The long-run relationship between public sector size and economic growth: income elasticity and causality of the italian general government expenditure (1861-1998). En: International Review of Economics and Business, vol. 43, n.° 3, p. 415-437.
Magazzino, Cosimo (2012a). Wagner versus Keynes: public spending and national income in Italy. En: Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 34, n.° 6, p. 890-905.
Magazzino, Cosimo (2012b). Wagner’s law and augmented Wagner’s law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality. En: International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, n.° 89, p. 205-220.
Magazzino, Cosimo; Giolli, Lorenzo y Mele, Marco (2015). Wagner’s law and Peacock and Wiseman’s displacement effect in European Union countries: a panel data study. En: International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 5, n.° 3, p. 812-819.
Maluquer de Motes, Jordi (2010). Crisis y recuperación económica en la Restauración. En: Comín, Francisco; Hernández, Mauro y Llopis, Enrique (Eds.). Historia económica de España: siglos X-XX. Barcelona: Editorial Crítica, p. 242-284.
Mann, Arthur (1980). Wagner’s law: an econometric test for Mexico, 1925-1976. En: National Tax Journal, vol. 33, n.° 2, p. 189-201.
Martin, Alison y Lewis, Arthur (1956). Patterns of public revenue and expenditure. En: The Manchester School, vol. 24, n.° 3, p. 203-244.
Mill, John Stuart (1951). Principios de economía política. Ciudad de México: Fondo de Cultura Económica, 896p.
Murthy, Vasudeva (1993). Further evidence of Wagner’s law for Mexico: an application of cointegration analysis. En: Public Finance, vol. 48, n.° 1, p. 92-96.
Musgrave, Richard (1970). Fiscal systems. New Haven: Yale University Press, 397p.
Musgrave, Richard y Peacock, Allan (Eds.) (1958). Classics in the theory of public finance. Londres: Macmillan, 244p.
Narayan, Paresh; Nielsen, Ingrid y Smyth, Russell (2008). Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law: empirical evidence from chinese provinces. En: China Economic Review, vol. 19, n.° 2, p. 297-307.
Pascual, Pere y Sudrià , Carles (2010) El difícil arranque de la industrialización (1840-1880). En: Comín, Francisco; Hernández, Mauro y Llopis, Enrique (Eds.). Historia económica de España: siglos X-XX. Barcelona: Editorial Crítica, p. 203-242.
Peacock, Allan y Wiseman, Jack (1961). The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 213p.
Peacock, Allan y Wiseman, Jack (1967). The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom. Londres: Allen and Unwin, 213p.
Petry, François; Imbeau, Louis; Crête, Jean y Clavet, Michel (2000). Explaining the evolution of government size in the canadian provinces. En: Public Finance Review, vol. 28, n.° 1, p. 26-47.
Pigou, Arthur (1962). Un estudio sobre la hacienda pública. Madrid: Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, 366p.
Pistoresi, Barbara; Rinaldi, Alberto y Salsano, Francesco (2017). Government spending and its components in Italy, 1862-2009: drivers and policy implications. En: Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 39, n.° 6, p. 1117-1140.
Priesmeier, Christoph y Koester, Gerrit (2012). Does Wagner’s law ruin the sustainability of German public finances. https://bit.ly/2MRQqhq
Richter, Christian y Paparas, Dimitrios (2013). The validity of Wagner’s law in Greece during the last two centuries. En: Applied Economics Quarterly, vol. 59, n.° 4, p. 331-360.
Serrano, José María y Pardos, Eva (2010). Los años de crecimiento del franquismo (1959-1975). En: Comín, Francisco; Hernández, Mauro y Llopis, Enrique (Eds.). Historia económica de España: siglos X-XX. Barcelona: Editorial Crítica, p. 369-397.
Sidgwick, Henry (1883). Principles of Political Economic. Londres: Macmillan, 622p.
Smith, Adam (1979). Investigación sobre la naturaleza y causas de la riqueza de las naciones. Ciudad de México: Fondo de Cultura Económica, 720p.
Susetyo, Didik; Zunaidah; Rohima, Siti; Yulianita, Anna; Adam, Mohamad y Valeriani, Devi (2017). Expenditure analysis of local government and regional economic development district/city of ten province in Sumatra island Indonesia. En: International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, vol. 15, n.° 3, p. 17-42.
Tamames, Ramón (1993). Introducción a la economía española. Madrid: Alianza, 569p.
Timm, Herbert (1961). Das gesetz der wachsenden staatsausgaben. En: FinanzArchiv, vol. 21, p. 201-247.
Valle, Victorio (1996). La hacienda pública de la democracia española: principales rasgos. En: Papeles de Economía Española, n.° 68, p. 2-9.
Wagner, Adolf (1958). Three extracts on public finance. En: Musgrave, Richard y Peacock, Allan (Eds.) (1958). Classics in the theory of public finance. Londres: Macmillan, p. 1-15.
Wahab, Mahmoud (2004). Economic growth and government expenditure: evidence from a new test specification. En: Applied Economics, vol. 36, n.° 19, p. 2125-2135.