Estimadores da volatilidade com base na informação de alta frequência na taxa de capitalização acionária (Colcap) na Colômbia
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- Articles
- Enviado: fevereiro 19, 2021
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Publicado: julho 30, 2021
Resumo
O propósito do artigo é determinar o comportamento da volatilidade do índice de Capitalização da Bolsa de Valores da Colômbia (Colcap) no período de 17 de janeiro a 30 de abril de 2020. Foram usados os modelos autorregresivos de heteroscedasticidad condicional propostos por Engle (1982), Bollersev (1986) e a extensão Egarch apresentada por Nelson (1991), pela sua ampla aplicação em pesquisas que buscam determinar os riscos subjacentes em séries de tempo financeiras. Os resultados indicam que o uso das especificações Garch (1,1) y Egarch (1,1), são os mais eficientes para captar as alterações repentinas na volatilidade dos retornos do índice, que é mais notório nos períodos com presença de choques externos, tais como a crise financeira de 2008, a guerra dos preços do petróleo e mais recentemente a pandemia da Covid-19, ocasionando altos níveis de ricos e incertezas para os investidores. Nesta investigação, a extensão Egarch tem coeficiente de assimetria positivo, o que significa que ante anúncios inesperados não gerarão mudanças drásticas na variância dos retornos
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