¿Es factible el resurgimiento del conflicto armado en Colombia en la fase de posconflicto?
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Publicado: enero 15, 2018
Resumen
El objetivo de este artículo es presentar una revisión crítica sobre factores que pueden generar un resurgimiento del conflicto armado en la fase de posconflicto en Colombia. Para tal fin, se presenta una comparación de casos de África, Asia, Europa y América Latina en los últimos 10 años en torno a dos criterios: diseño de política pública durante el posconflicto; y resultados en desarrollo social antes y después de la firma de los acuerdos de paz. Dos conclusiones sobresalen: por un lado, la planeación de base comunitaria
es relevante durante el periodo de reconstrucción social y económica; y por otro, los países con conflictos más antiguos parecen haber alcanzado un estado estacionario con consolidación de un sistema de violencia, particularmente en las zonas rurales. Para el caso colombiano, se puede decir que no es factible el resurgimiento del conflicto armado en la fase de posconflicto, siempre y cuando se realicen las respectivas inversiones en las dimensiones abordadas y sus variables –economía, capital humano, capital social, instituciones y desarrollo social–.
Referencias
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Laplante, L. (2007). Después de la verdad: demandas para reparaciones en el Perú, Poscomisión de la verdad y la reconciliación. En: Antípoda, n.° 4, p. 119 - 145.
Lemmon, G. T. (2012). Entrepreneurship in postconflict zones, Working paper, Council on Foreign Relations, 21p.
Lyer, L. y Santos, I. (2012). Creating jobs in South Asia’s conflict zones. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n.° 6104, 54p.
Lynch, K.; Maconachie, R.; Binns, T.; Tengbe, P. y Bangura, K. (2013). Meeting the urban challenge? Urban Agriculture and Food Security in Post - Conflict Freetown, Sierra Leone. En: Applied Geography, Vol. 36, n.° 1, p. 31 - 39.
Massaquoi, W. N. (2007). Women and Post - Conflict Development: A Case Study on Liberia. (Doctoral dissertation), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, Massachusetts, United States, 126p.
Menjívar C. y Agadjanian V. (2007), Men’s Migration and Women’s Lives: Views from Rural Armenia and Guatemala. En: Social Science Quaterly, Vol. 88, n.° 5, p. 1243 - 1262.
McMahon, P. C. (2004). Rebuilding Bosnia: a model to emulate or to avoid? En: Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 119, n.° 4, p. 569 - 593.
Nasi, C. y Rettberg, A. (2005). Los estudios sobre conflicto armado y paz: un campo en evolución permanente. En: Colombia Internacional, n.° 62, p. 64 - 85.
Ohanyan A. (2002). Post Conflict Global Governance: The Case of Microfinance Enterprise Networks in Bosnia and Herzegovina. En: International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 3, n.° 4, p. 396 - 416.
Organización Internacional del Trabajo – OIT (2010). La recuperación económica local en situaciones de posconflicto. Programa de respuesta a las Crisis y Reconstrucción (OIT/CRISIS), 313p.
Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo – PNUD (2011). Informe Nacional de Desarrollo Humano. Bogotá: PNUD, 446p.
Randall, S. (2005). The demographic consequences of conflict, exile and repatriation: A case study of Malian Tuareg. En: European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 21, n.° 2/3, p. 291 - 320.
Richani, N. (2010). State Capacity in Post Conflict Settings: Explaining Criminal Violence in El Salvador and Guatemala. En: Civil Wars, Vol. 12, n.° 4, p. 431 - 455.
Rugumamu, S. y Gbla, O. (2003). Studies in Reconstruction and Capacity Building in Post - Conflict
Countries in Africa, some Lessons of Experience from Rwanda. Harare, Zimbabwe: The
African Capacity Building Foundation, 63p.
Smet, S. (2009). A Window of Opportunity–Improving Gender Relations in Post - Conflict Societies:
The Sierra Leonean Experience. En: Journal of Gender Studies, Vol. 18, n.° 2, p. 147 - 163.
Tarway - Twalla, A. (2011). The Contribution of Grassroots Business to Postconflict Development in
Liberia. En: Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy,
Vol. 5, n.° 1, p. 58 - 67.
Tabak, S. (2011). False Dichotomies of Transitional Justice: Gender, Conflict and Combatants in
Colombia. En: International Law and Politics, Vol. 44, p. 103 - 156.
Thomson, F. (2011). The Agrarian Question and Violence in Colombia: Conflict and Development.
En: Journal of Agrarian Change, Vol. 11, n.° 3, p. 321 - 356.
Thorsell, S. (2013). Towards People - Centred Economic Reintegration? An Analysis of the Economic
Reintegration Strategy of Demobilised Combatants in Colombia. En: Colombia Internacional,
Vol. 77, p. 177 - 215.
Tobias, J. M. y Boudreaux, K. C. (2011). Entrepreneurship and Conflict Reduction in the
Post - Genocide Rwandan Coffee Industry. En: Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship,
Vol. 24, n.° 2, p. 217 - 242.
UNDP (2010). Leadership and Change in Post‐Conflict States: A Case Study of Liberia. United
Nations Development Programme, Global Event Working paper, 31p.
Vélez, A. y Insuasty, A. (2017). Experiencias de economía solidaria en escenarios de postconflicto.
Medellín: Editorial Kavilando, 77p.
Wei, D. (1996). Bosnia and Herzegovina – Toward Economic Recovery. Publicaciones del Banco
Mundial, 68p.
AIF (2007). Afganistán: Apoyo para la construcción del Estado y el desarrollo. En: La AIF en acción, 12p.
Akresh, R.; Verwim, P. y Bundervoet, T. (2011). Civil War, Crop Failure, and Child Stunting in Rwanda. En: Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 59, n.° 4, p. 777 - 810.
Alesina, A. y Ferrara, E. L. (2005). En: Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance. En: Journal of Economic Literature, Vol, 43, n.° 3, p. 762 - 800.
Amman, J. y O’Donnell, J. (2011). The Sierra Leona Teachers Union: labor in a Post Conflict Society. Working USA. En: The Journal of Labor and Society, Vol. 14, n.° 1, p. 57 - 71.
Ansoms, A. (2005). Resurrection after Civil War and Genocide: Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Post - Conflict Rwanda. En: The European Journal of Development Research, Vol.17, n.° 3, p. 495 - 508.
Banco Mundial (2005). Implementation Completion Report (grtd - h0090 tf - 51247 tf - 51429) on a Grant in the Amount of sdr 33.7 Million (us $42 million equivalent) to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan for the Emergency Community Empowerment and Public Works Project. World Bank Publications, 35p.
Banco Mundial (2010). Implementation Completion and Results Report (ida - 35380 ida - 35381) on Credits in the Amount of sdr 11.8 million (us$ 15.0 million equivalent) and sdr 3.4 million (us$ 5.0 million equivalent) to Bosnia and Herzegovina for a Community Development Project and Additional Financing. Banco Mundial, 43p.
Colleta, N.; Kostner, M.; Cleves, P. y Mendelson, J. (2000). Toward an Architecture for Sustainable Peace and Development: Lessons from the World Bank´s Experience, p. 159 - 193. En: A. Solimano (Ed.), Colombia: Essays on Conflict, Peace, and Development. Washington, D.C.:
Banco Mundial, 214p. Collier, P. (2009). Post - conflict Recovery: How Should Strategies be Distinctive? En: Journal of African Economies, Vol. 18, Supplement 1, p. i99 - i131.
Collier P.; Hoeffler, A. y Soderbom M. (2004). On the Duration of Civil War. En: Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 41, n.° 3, p. 253 - 273.
Collier O.; Hoeffler A. y Rohner D. (2008). Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and civil war. En: Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 61, n.° 1, p. 1 - 27.
Dursun - Ozkanca, O. (2009). Rebuilding Kosovo: Cooperation or Competition between the EU and NATO? En: XI Conferencia Internacional Bianual EUSA. Los Ángeles: Elizabethtown College, Department of Political Science, 40p.
Erica, J. (2010). Ruptures, Rights, and Repair: The Political Economy of Trauma in Haiti. En: Social Science & Medicine Vol. 70, n.° 1, p. 106 - 113.
Englebert, P., y Tull, D. M. (2008). Postconflict Reconstruction in Africa: Flawed Ideas about Failed States. En: International Security, Vol. 32, n.° 4, p. 106 - 139.
Eriksson, J. R.; Kreimer, A. y Arnold, M. (2000). El Salvador: Post - Conflict Reconstruction, Country Case Study Series. Washington: Banco Mundial, 73p.
Finnoff, K. (2012). Intimate Partner Violence, Female Employment, and Male Backlash in Rwanda. En: The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, Vol. 7, n.° 2, p. 14 - 24.
Fred - Mensah, B. (2004). Social Capital Building as Capacity for Post Conflict Development: The UNDP in Mozambique and Rwanda. En: Global Governance, Vol. 10, n.° 4, p. 437 - 457. Garstka, G. J. (2010). Post - conflict Urban Planning: The Regularization Process of an Informal Neighborhood in Kosova/o. En: Habitat International, Vol. 34, n.° 1, p. 86 - 95.
Haynes, D. F. (2010). Lessons from Bosnia’s Arizona Market: Harm to Women in a Neoliberalized Postconflict Reconstruction Process. En: University of Pennsylvania Law Review, Vol. 158, n.° 6, p.1779 - 1829.
Justino P., L. M. (2011). Education and Conflict Recovery, The Case of Timor Leste. Policy Research Working Paper 5774. Banco Mundial, 65p.
Kreimer, A.; Muscat R.; Elwan A. y Arnold M. (2000a). Bosnia and Herzegovina: post - conflict reconstruction: Country Case Study Series, Publicaciones Banco Mundial, 107p.
Kreimer, A.; Collier P.; Scott C. y Arnold M. (2000b). Uganda: post - conflict reconstruction. Country Case Study Series, World Bank Publications, 73p.
Kumar, K.; Baldwin, H. y Benjamin, J. (2000), Aftermath: Women´s organization in post conflict El Salvador. USAID Evaluation Highlights n.° 72, 8p.
Laplante, L. (2007). Después de la verdad: demandas para reparaciones en el Perú, Poscomisión de la verdad y la reconciliación. En: Antípoda, n.° 4, p. 119 - 145.
Lemmon, G. T. (2012). Entrepreneurship in postconflict zones, Working paper, Council on Foreign Relations, 21p.
Lyer, L. y Santos, I. (2012). Creating jobs in South Asia’s conflict zones. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n.° 6104, 54p.
Lynch, K.; Maconachie, R.; Binns, T.; Tengbe, P. y Bangura, K. (2013). Meeting the urban challenge? Urban Agriculture and Food Security in Post - Conflict Freetown, Sierra Leone. En: Applied Geography, Vol. 36, n.° 1, p. 31 - 39.
Massaquoi, W. N. (2007). Women and Post - Conflict Development: A Case Study on Liberia. (Doctoral dissertation), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, Massachusetts, United States, 126p.
Menjívar C. y Agadjanian V. (2007), Men’s Migration and Women’s Lives: Views from Rural Armenia and Guatemala. En: Social Science Quaterly, Vol. 88, n.° 5, p. 1243 - 1262.
McMahon, P. C. (2004). Rebuilding Bosnia: a model to emulate or to avoid? En: Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 119, n.° 4, p. 569 - 593.
Nasi, C. y Rettberg, A. (2005). Los estudios sobre conflicto armado y paz: un campo en evolución permanente. En: Colombia Internacional, n.° 62, p. 64 - 85.
Ohanyan A. (2002). Post Conflict Global Governance: The Case of Microfinance Enterprise Networks in Bosnia and Herzegovina. En: International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 3, n.° 4, p. 396 - 416.
Organización Internacional del Trabajo – OIT (2010). La recuperación económica local en situaciones de posconflicto. Programa de respuesta a las Crisis y Reconstrucción (OIT/CRISIS), 313p.
Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo – PNUD (2011). Informe Nacional de Desarrollo Humano. Bogotá: PNUD, 446p.
Randall, S. (2005). The demographic consequences of conflict, exile and repatriation: A case study of Malian Tuareg. En: European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 21, n.° 2/3, p. 291 - 320.
Richani, N. (2010). State Capacity in Post Conflict Settings: Explaining Criminal Violence in El Salvador and Guatemala. En: Civil Wars, Vol. 12, n.° 4, p. 431 - 455.
Rugumamu, S. y Gbla, O. (2003). Studies in Reconstruction and Capacity Building in Post - Conflict
Countries in Africa, some Lessons of Experience from Rwanda. Harare, Zimbabwe: The
African Capacity Building Foundation, 63p.
Smet, S. (2009). A Window of Opportunity–Improving Gender Relations in Post - Conflict Societies:
The Sierra Leonean Experience. En: Journal of Gender Studies, Vol. 18, n.° 2, p. 147 - 163.
Tarway - Twalla, A. (2011). The Contribution of Grassroots Business to Postconflict Development in
Liberia. En: Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy,
Vol. 5, n.° 1, p. 58 - 67.
Tabak, S. (2011). False Dichotomies of Transitional Justice: Gender, Conflict and Combatants in
Colombia. En: International Law and Politics, Vol. 44, p. 103 - 156.
Thomson, F. (2011). The Agrarian Question and Violence in Colombia: Conflict and Development.
En: Journal of Agrarian Change, Vol. 11, n.° 3, p. 321 - 356.
Thorsell, S. (2013). Towards People - Centred Economic Reintegration? An Analysis of the Economic
Reintegration Strategy of Demobilised Combatants in Colombia. En: Colombia Internacional,
Vol. 77, p. 177 - 215.
Tobias, J. M. y Boudreaux, K. C. (2011). Entrepreneurship and Conflict Reduction in the
Post - Genocide Rwandan Coffee Industry. En: Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship,
Vol. 24, n.° 2, p. 217 - 242.
UNDP (2010). Leadership and Change in Post‐Conflict States: A Case Study of Liberia. United
Nations Development Programme, Global Event Working paper, 31p.
Vélez, A. y Insuasty, A. (2017). Experiencias de economía solidaria en escenarios de postconflicto.
Medellín: Editorial Kavilando, 77p.
Wei, D. (1996). Bosnia and Herzegovina – Toward Economic Recovery. Publicaciones del Banco
Mundial, 68p.
