Efectos de la internacionalización sobre la demanda de trabajo en la industria manufacturera colombiana, 1974-2015
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Colombia experimentó un importante cambio estructural a principios de los años noventa. Este cambio estructural está relacionado con las grandes reformas del comercio y del mercado laboral emprendidas en torno a 1992, que se considera el año de inflexión. Este trabajo se centra en evaluar si el cambio estructural en la exposición al comercio internacional alteró significativamente la respuesta del empleo a los cambios salariales en la industria manufacturera. Se utiliza el marco de Hamermesh (1993) para explicar el efecto total sobre el empleo, que se compone de los efectos de sustitución y de escala. Este efecto total se cuantifica empíricamente y se desentrañan sus dos componentes. Encontramos que la elasticidad del empleo de un cambio salarial pasó de -1.05 en 1974-1991 a -1.56 en 1992-2015. Por componentes, el efecto de sustitución aumentó de -0.68 a -1.19. y el efecto de escala se mantuvo estable en -0.38. Estos resultados sugieren que la liberalización del comercio ha tenido consecuencias negativas en el bienestar de los trabajadores. Una mayor sensibilidad de la demanda de mano de obra se ha asociado a una mayor carga fiscal de los trabajadores y a una mayor inestabilidad de los resultados del mercado laboral (Rodrik, 1997). Por lo tanto, los aumentos de la imposición sobre las nóminas experimentados durante los años noventa pueden haber provocado la destrucción de puestos de trabajo y un aumento de la carga fiscal de los trabajadores, mientras que los procesos de sustitución de capital por trabajo pueden haberse acelerado debido a la mayor sensibilidad del empleo.
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