DETERMINANTES DE LAS EXPORTACIONES DE LA INDUSTRIA MANUFACTURERA EN LOS PAÍSES BRICS
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Este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar los determinantes de las exportaciones de la industria manufacturera en los países BRICS (Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica), con un énfasis particular en el papel de las Inversiones Extranjeras Directas (IED). Para ello, se empleó un modelo de datos de panel basado en un método de Corrección de Errores Vectoriales (VECM) para el periodo de 2001 a 2022. Este enfoque permitió identificar la influencia de la IED y otros factores determinantes en las exportaciones manufactureras de los países BRICS, considerando las características de cada país dentro de plazos específicos. Los resultados demostraron que la IED, la formación bruta de capital (FVC) y el promedio de años de escolaridad tienen un impacto positivo en las exportaciones ma nufactureras. Un aumento del 1 por ciento en la IED se asocia con un aumento del 0,40 por ciento en las exportaciones, mientras que los aumentos en el FVC y el promedio de años de escolaridad contribuyen a un aumento de las exportaciones en un 1,12 por ciento y un 0,53 por ciento, respecti vamente. Los tipos de cambio, aunque no fueron estadísticamente significativos, tuvieron una relación negativa, lo que sugiere que la depreciación favorece la competitividad. Estos resultados ponen de relieve la importancia de la IED y de los factores estructurales, y refuerzan la necesidad de políticas que fomenten la inversión y la cualificación de la mano de obra.
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