Fuzzy relations as a prediction tool of business failure causes in the construction sector

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Valeria Scherger
Antonio Terceño
Hernán Vigier

Abstract

This article evaluates the techniques used for the detection and prediction of business cause failures. The main limitations of the classical prediction models for business insolvency are exposed and a fuzzy analysis as an alternative to identify the relation between failure causes and the businesses´ visible symptoms. As complement, a Balanced Scorecard is used as global analysis tool for the base company in order to detect the cause of failure. The application of the balance scorecard allows defining a list of origination causes for the problems faced by the companies. These are valued using linguistic labels for detecting the most common diseases that can lead to business failure. Concerning traditional models, the applied methodology in the work allows to predict the possible failure of a company and identify the causes.

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Author Biographies

Valeria Scherger, Universidad Nacional del Sur

Docente-Investigador Departamento de Economía, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Bahía Blanca, Argentina. Dirección: Campus Universitario de Altos de Palihue, San Andrés al 800.

Antonio Terceño, Universidad Rovira i Virgili, Reus

Catedrático de Universidad. Investigador principal del grupo de Mercados y Análisis Financiero, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad Rovira i Virgili, Reus, España Dirección: Av. De la Universidad 1.

Hernán Vigier, Universidad Nacional del Sur

Profesor titular, Departamento de Economía, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Bahía Blanca Argentina. Facultad de la Micro Pequeña y Mediana Empresa, Universidad Provincial del Sudoeste, Bahía Blanca, Argentina. Investigador, CEDETS, Bahía Blanca, Argentina. Dirección: Campus Universitario de Altos de Palihue, San Andrés al 800.

How to Cite

Scherger, V., Terceño, A., & Vigier, H. (2016). Fuzzy relations as a prediction tool of business failure causes in the construction sector. Semestre Económico, 19(41), 191-228. https://doi.org/10.22395/seec.v19n41a8

References