UNEMPLOYMENT, INFLATION AND EXOGENOUS SHOCKS IN BRAZIL AND THE UNITED STATES: A PHILLIPS CURVE ANALYSIS
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This study aims to assess the relationship between unemployment and the performance of inflationary indicators by estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for Brazil and the United States. Various macroeconomic variables were considered, such as unemployment rates, inflation, expected inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities prices in the two economies, from January 2010 to December 2023. A specific proxy was used to identify exogenous shocks affecting both Brazil and the United States. The results were estimated using instrumental variables methods and the generalized method of moments (GMM), as well as statistical significance tests to assess the effectiveness of the instruments used. The findings indicate the presence of a trade-off between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in the Brazilian and American economies. In addition, the economic and health shocks that have occurred recently have exerted a positive effect on inflation in the countries analyzed.
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